Indiana

Outlook: Leans Republican

October 4, 2008 Update:

Indiana Democrats entered 2008 ecstatic about their chances to recapture the governor’s mansion. They had a weakening statewide economy, a controversial and confrontational incumbent, and a confident, fresh-faced candidate in Jim Schellinger who seemed poised for a breakout debut on the Indiana stage. Since then, two out of the three Democratic advantages have dissipated—Governor Mitch Daniels has recovered much of his lost popularity, and the “wrong” candidate, former Representative Jill Long Thompson, won a hard-fought primary. Still, despite the deterioration of Democratic fortunes, the tanking economy remains the wildcard in the race and could be enough to pull this contest back to genuine competitiveness.

The struggles of Long Thompson are well-documented. After winning the primary on virtually name recognition alone, she has struggled to raise money even with the help of unlimited contributions from EMILY’s List and SEIU. With her campaign in financial disarray, Thompson has been shedding senior staff—never a good sign this late in an election. More importantly, the challenger has been off television for the past two weeks, leaving Daniels ads uncontested on the airwaves.

Such stumbles would normally doom a campaign to a landslide defeat (which may yet happen), but the precipitous decline of the Hoosier economy makes Daniels vulnerable to virtually any challenger. Polling in this race has been notoriously inconsistent. Up until last week, most public surveys showed the incumbent with a commanding and widening lead of up to 21 points. However, two recent polls suggest the race may be tightening: in one, Daniels leads by four points, and the other by only one. The inept Thompson campaign cannot take credit for these developments; the economic downturn is largely responsible for whatever electoral changes may be occurring. With money to spend, Daniels remains the strong favorite to win reelection, but in the month ahead of Election Day, the governor must do more to empathize with voter concerns and distance himself from the unpopular free-market ideology he embraced during his first term.

August 7, 2008 Update:

First-term Governor Mitch Daniels has had a difficult four years, not least because of a bad economy but also because of some policy missteps. While an upset cannot absolutely be ruled out, he is still favored for a second term over Democratic nominee Jill Long Thompson, who squeaked by a male primary opponent to gain the party’s nod in May. Thompson is a former member of the U.S. House, best known for having grabbed Dan Coats’ seat in 1989 after he was appointed to the Senate in 1989 to replace Vice President-elect Dan Quayle. Thompson lost her House seat in the 1994 GOP landslide, and failed in a comeback attempt in 2002. Should Barack Obama choose Sen. Evan Bayh to be his running-mate, Thompson might well benefit from coattail.

June 16, 2008 Update:

Former congresswoman Jill Long Thompson squeaked by architect Jim Schellinger in the May Democratic primary, with 50.6% of the vote. Long Thompson must now face Republican Governor Mitch Daniels in a matchup in which she is the definite underdog. A nonpartisan poll taken at the end of May showed Daniels leading 51-35, with a 60% favorable rating. While voters were pretty much split on whether Indiana was heading in the right direction, voters are well acquainted with Daniels and don’t really know Long Thompson, evidenced by the fact that fewer than 50% of voters were able to answer whether they viewed her favorably or not.

Will Long Thompson get the chance to introduce herself to voters? Yes. Will her introduction be answered? Certainly. At the end of March, Long Thompson had just $500,000 in her campaign coffers, while Daniels had over $5 million. As an incumbent with 60% favorability, Daniels will have plenty of money to spare; money he can use to paint his Democratic opponent any way he wants. For her part, Long Thompson must raise enough to air plenty of ads and make sure her money is being spent wisely, since it is a certainty that she will have less to spread around. At the end of the day, it is always an uphill battle facing a popular incumbent with deep pockets. The 2008 gubernatorial race in Indiana will be no different.

April 2, 2008 Update:

One year ago, Indiana Democrats were thrilled about their prospects of retaking the Governor’s mansion from Republican Mitch Daniels. Democrats had momentum after retaking the state house in 2006, a promising candidate in architect and political outsider Jim Schellinger, and a vulnerable incumbent beset by the controversial policies of toll road privatization and daylight savings time changes. Now Democrats are headed toward a divisive May primary between Schellinger and former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson, both of whom would be seriously flawed in a general election. Meanwhile, Daniels has somewhat recovered his political footing and looks increasingly likely for the re-elect in November.

Democratic hopes were boosted by a late November poll showing both Schellinger and Long Thompson with narrow leads on the embattled incumbent. No poll since has replicated these findings; most showing Daniels up double-digits on either candidate. Schellinger, a wealthy architect with business experience and party contacts, was embraced by the Democratic establishment, but has since performed poorly. Now, party insiders are wondering if this one-time ”rising star” was just a flash in the pan. He has low statewide name identification, and if (a big if) he gets by Thompson, he compares poorly with Daniels on issues of policy substance.

Thompson, meanwhile, has to be considered the favorite in the primary (she leads commandingly in recent polls) but she will be at a severe financial disadvantage against Daniels in the fall. While Schellinger raised $2.48 million in 2007 and Daniels has a whopping $6.7 million in cash on hand, Long Thompson has pocketed an anemic $436K for a race that Democratic insiders expect to cost around $20 million. If Thompson is to be competitive, she will have to ramp up her fundraising without delay.

At the same time, Daniels is beginning to shake off the damage from an aggressive and controversial executive agenda. In the 2007 legislative session, Daniels has avoided his confrontational tactics of the past and introduced policies on the basis of bipartisan consensus. Recently, he’s scored political points for curtailing property tax increases—a major issue in today’s Indiana—and cooperating with the new Democratic majority in the statehouse. Certainly, Daniels isn’t afraid to take risks that may eventually spell his political demise. But for now, his risks in office seem to have earned him both the ire and the respect of Indiana voters, likely affording Daniels a narrow reelection in November.

Background

The Hoosier state has not treated its incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels kindly; as of November 2006 his disapproval rating of 49 percent was significantly higher than his 43 percent approval rating. That wasn’t even the low point however, as polling showed in an abysmal 35 percent rating in April of 2006.

Daniels faced controversy during his tenure when he, a conservative Republican, attempted to raise taxes by one percent for individuals and entities who earned over $100,000 yearly. Additionally, he failed in another controversial effort that tried to raise the 55.5 cent cigar
ette tax by 25 cents. Other unpopular actions include the introduction of Daylight Savings Time in Indiana and the leasing of the Indiana Toll Road.

What Daniels lacks in popularity, he makes up for in opposition, as three Democrats have already officially announced their candidacies. Democratic businessman and architect Jim Schellinger has gained endorsements from several key Indiana politicians, and raised over $1 million in the second quarter. State senate Minority Leader Richard D. Young has spent eighteen years in the senate and ten as Minority Leader, but has less than $50,000 cash on hand compared to Schellinger’s $1.1 million. Former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson has created some buzz as well, recently releasing a poll that showed her sitting well above her primary rivals, taking 33 percent to Young’s 12 percent and Schellinger’s eight percent.

While Indiana did give 60 percent of the vote to Bush in 2004, Democrats have a chance to regain the governorship in 2008. It is tough to rule out Daniels as the incumbent Republican, but he has his work cut out for him if one of the three Democrats opposing him escapes mostly unscathed from the likely primary. While Daniels has a tough row to hoe, the election leans slightly his way, since he is the sitting governor with a year left to redeem himself, while his opponents try to chip away each other’s luster.