Delaware

Outlook: Likely Democratic

October 4, 2008 Update:

Ever since Treasurer Jack Markell entered the Democratic primary, the Delaware establishment has united in favor of his opponent, Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Carney was endorsed by the incumbent governor, the state Democratic Committee, and virtually the entire Democratic legislative caucus, while Markell was pressured by Senator Carper to wait his turn and take the Lieutenant Governor’s race instead. But Markell stayed in the race, sharpened his criticism of the unpopular Minner administration, and leveraged his business contacts to amass by far the largest campaign warchest of the gubernatorial candidates. In a year where anti-establishment fever runs hot, Markell effectively framed himself as an agent of change and Carney as a representative of the status quo.

Needless to say, Markell defeated Carney by a 51.2 to 48.8 margin, virtually guaranteeing his promotion to governor next year. As for Carney, the news isn’t all bad—if Barack Obama wins the presidency, he is one of the leading candidates to replace Joe Biden in the Senate (our bet, though, is that the nod goes to the Senator’s son, Attorney General Beau Biden).

With the primary concluded, Markell must still fend off a nominal challenge from Republican nominee Bill Lee before he can start measuring the drapes in governor’s mansion. Lee is widely respected in the state as a former judge and moderate Republican in the mold of longtime Representative Mike Castle (R-DE). In 2004, he nearly unseated highly-unpopular sitting governor, Ruth Minner, but there are legitimate questions about whether his heart is in the race this time around. He neither sought the Republican nomination nor campaigned vigorously in the GOP primary, and his fundraising so far has been uninspiring. The only post-primary poll shows Lee trailing Markell by a whopping thirty-four points (61-27), a deficit from which he will surely never recover. Top-of-ballot influences from Barack Obama and Joe Biden (twice!) should only roll up Markell’s margins in a race where the Old Guard of Delaware politics—Minner, Carney, Biden, and to some extent Lee—will give way to a new generation of “First State” leaders.

August 7, 2008 Update:

Two-term Democratic Governor Ruth Minner is finishing up her final year, and despite her relatively weak popularity, the Democrat is very likely to win here. Who will that Democratic nominee be? Lt. Gov. John Carney is favored, but he is receiving a vigorous challenge from state Treasurer Jack Markell in the primary on September 9th. The GOP nominee apparently will be retired Superior Court Judge Bill Lee, who nearly denied Minner a second term. That was due to Minner’s lackluster performance, not Lee’s strengths. Plus, Barack Obama is a lock in Delaware, providing coattail for the Democrat.

June 13, 2008 Update:

Republicans finally have their man! It took until May 13, but after drafting former judge Bill Lee at the state party convention, Lee accepted and has officially thrown his hat into the ring. Lee must still contend with underdogs Dave Graham, who ran unsuccessfully in 2004, and Michael Protack, who will be the candidate of the Delaware Independent Party even if he loses the GOP primary.

Still, it looks too late for Republicans to have a real chance at catching up. Dems have two A-list candidates who have been in the race for months, Lieutenant Governor John Carney and state treasurer Jack Markell. Both have the funds and organization to fend off Lee’s challenge unless conditions change dramatically over the next five months.

April 2, 2008 Update:

Republican hopes to retake Delaware’s governor’s mansion took a major hit in January when businessman Alan Levin passed on the race. As it is, a few GOPers, including house speaker Terry Spence and state representatives Greg Lavelle and Bill Oberle, are considering bids, but with two top-tier Democratic contenders, it may be too late for a Republican to make a difference.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary remains as competitive as ever. Jack Markell appears to have the momentum for now as John Carney is stuck with the baggage of the Minner administration’s budget shortfall. However, Markell has yet to crack Carney’s near-monopoly on establishment and union support. Delaware insiders know that with a Democratic Presidential candidate and Senator Joe Biden heading the ticket this fall, whoever earns the Democratic nomination is a prohibitive favorite to win. They don’t know, however, who that Democrat—either Carney or Markell—will be.

November 19, 2007 Update:

The GOP has yet to put forth an A-list gubernatorial candidate to match Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Carney and state treasurer Jack Markell. Republican businessman Alan Levin, however, has showed signs of interest in the race, saying that he is “working on it,” while the Delaware GOP has been trying to convince pilot and declared candidate Mike Protack to disassociate himself from the Party after vicious intra-Party attack postcards were traced to his computer.

Background

With lukewarm Democrat Ruth Ann Minner stepping down from her post as governor of Delaware because of term limits, Democrats are rushing to fill the void. Lieutenant Governor John Carney was the first to declare, and although state Dems urged state treasurer Jack Markell to run for Carney’s old post, Markell jumped into the race as well.

Though typically voters can count on Delaware to be a reliable Blue state (Delaware voted for Kerry in 2004 and for Gore before him), Minner’s two terms have not seen the kind of popularity that guarantee a Democratic successor. A June 2006 SurveyUSA poll found Minner to be the 38th ranked governor in the nation, with a 42 percent approval rating and a 53 percent disapproval rating. Minner won reelection in 2004 with slightly less than 51 percent of the vote, down from 59 percent four years earlier.

Carney has won the endorsement of the retiring governor and that of much of Delaware’s Democratic establishment. With an extensive economic background (he is the former state Secretary of Finance) Carney could bring fiscal understanding and responsibility to the post. Carney’s other initiatives include gun safety, especially for children, and a healthy lifestyle initiative. A former football coach at the University of Delaware, Carney could have the tenacity and discipline to see his campaign through to a successful finish.

One of ”100 Rising Stars” named by the DLC at the Democratic National Convention in 2000, ”I Back Jack” Markell claimed an astonishing 70 percent of the vote in winning reelection in 2006. State Democrats are upset that he opted to force a primary, the first for Democrats in the state since 1992, so he is lagging in the endorsement battle.

Republican airline pilot Michael Protack ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2004 and for Senate in 2006, but he is hoping the third time is the charm in 2008. Although he is currently the only declared Republican candidate, the state GOP chairman cautions that a primary contest is still very possible.

Unless the GOP can find a stronger candidate for the general election, even a potentially bruising Democratic primary won’t keep Democrats out of the statehouse.