Sabatos Crystal Ball

Washington Races

View All Races

Washington (02)

Outlook: Solid Democratic


November 8, 2006 Update:

Rep. Rick Larsen (D) won reelection over Doug Roulstone (R) with 65% of the vote.


Background

Three-term Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen‘s unconvincing 50 to 46 percent win over Republican Norma Smith in 2002 earned him a place on future Republican target lists in this Snohomish County-based district. Although the GOP failed to field a top recruit in 2004, they believe retired Navy officer Doug Roulstone will mount a competitive bid for this seat in 2006. This is a classic “swing” district, but Larsen’s large cash advantage and considerable incumbency put him in the driver’s seat for now in this race.

Candidates

Rick Larsen (I) – Democrat – Total Raised: $1,318,210.32 | Total Spent: $1,376,447.89
Website

Doug Roulstone – Republican – Total Raised: $550,222.97| Total Spent: $518,405.58
Website

Washington (05)

Outlook: Leans Republican


This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Watch List” of the next 25 House races worth keeping an eye on.

November 8, 2006 Update:

Rep. Cathy McMorris (R) won reelection over Peter Goldmark (D) with 56% of the vote.


Candidates

Cathy McMorris (I) – Republican – Total Raised: $1,454,104.00 | Total Spent: $1,238,370.00
Website

Peter Goldmark – Democrat – Total Raised: $871,928.91 | Total Spent: $483,604.52
Website

Washington (08)

Outlook: Toss-up


This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.

November 8, 2006 Update:

Rep. Dave Reichert (R) won reelection over Darcy Burner (D) with 51% of the vote.

July 13, 2006 Update:

This contest fell out of the Dirty Thirty this month not so much because its competitiveness declined but rather because other competitive races around the country entered the picture. If the Crystal Ball were to choose to create a Dirty 31, however, this race would be in it. News this week that Democratic hopeful Darcy Burner will post over $1 million raised so far this year at the conclusion of the second quarter means that this suburban Seattle district will once again experience a battle royal in 2006.

Freshman GOP Rep. Dave Reichert hasn’t done anything in particular to put his seat in jeopardy, but national Republicans are certainly cognizant of the marginal nature of this district, which is why President Bush dropped in for a high-dollar Reichert fundraiser last month. In addition, GOP activists in this tech-heavy district have taken Burner to task for allegedly inflating her resume by referring to herself as a Microsoft executive rather than a project manager; although the Crystal Ball does not foresee this dust-up will have much of an impact on the race, it is clear that Republicans plan to run an aggressive race to defend this seat, and for now, Reichert has the leg up in his fight for a second term.

Update:

Former Microsoft manager Darcy Burner is clearly on a fundraising tear, and it’s not clear that Freshman GOP Rep. Dave Reichert recent change of heart in favor of embryonic stem cell research has won him many new devotees. This race is back in our upper echelon.


February 2006 Outlook:

Freshman GOP Rep. Dave Reichert‘s biggest claim to fame before coming to Congress in 2004 was his role in the capture of the Seattle area’s much-feared “Green River Killer” in 2001, when he served as King County Sheriff. So when Republican Rep. Jennifer Dunn decided to step down last cycle, Reichert’s name recognition in this suburban Seattle swing district at the time he threw his hat into the ring was already the envy of several other candidates.

Democrats were disappointed last November when their nominee, popular radio talk show host Dave Ross, trailed Reichert 52 to 47 percent in the final tally. Nevertheless, Reichert’s freshman status and the fundamentally competitive nature of this district are sure to encourage national Democrats to fund at least one follow-up try, and former Microsoft manager Darcy Burner has emerged as the favorite to oppose Reichert. Although Microsoft’s home base of Redmond lies just beyond the district’s boundaries, plenty of the 8th’s residents have ties to the corporation, including one very well-to-do voter named Bill Gates (this is one case in which Democrats probably wish individuals could legally contribute unlimited sums to candidates!). Nevertheless, Burner’s total haul for the fourth quarter of 2005 amounted to just over $100,000, a decent but not spectacular showing. Give Reichert the advantage.

Candidates

Dave Reichert (I) – Republican – Total Raised: $2,377,052.05 | Total Spent: $1,875,980.47
Website

Darcy Burner – Democrat – Total Raised: $ 2,376,575.47| Total Spent: $1,699,253.55
Website