Sabatos Crystal Ball

Nevada Races

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Nevada (02) (Open Seat)

Outlook: Leans Republican


This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.

November 8, 2006 Update:

As the Crystal Ball predicted, Dean Heller (R) defeated Jill Derby (D) with 51% of the vote.

November 6, 2006 Update:

Dean Heller (R) will defeat Jill Derby (D). Of the two competitive Nevada districts, this non-Las Vegas district is the safer bet for a GOP hold. Even though some residual ill will remains from the tight GOP primary, Heller has run a solid general election race in the past few weeks, and Derby is more likely than not to fall a few points short of victory in our estimation.

July 13, 2006 Update:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added certain nominee Jill Derby to its “Red to Blue” list of takeover targets, but the key to their opportunity here remains an intense and draining three-way battle for the GOP nomination. Open seats are always tantalizing for competition-hungry parties, but this is the most heavily Republican district in Nevada, and Derby will need to hit a home run to win this sprawling seat in November.


February 2006 Outlook:

This district, which encompasses over 95 percent of Nevada’s land area but just a third of its people, will feature a fierce Republican primary in the race to replace GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons, who is leaving a safe House seat to run for governor. But what if the three-way GOP primary becomes too nasty, draining the eventual nominee of funds for the general election? Then Democratic state university regent Jill Derby just might be competitive in the general election. Still, this district is likely to stay in GOP hands.

Candidates

Jill Derby – Democrat – Total Raised: $1,227,017.29 | Total Spent: $1,123,631.03
Website

Dean Heller – Republican – Total Raised: $1,386,651.51 | Total Spent: $1,237,514.92
Website

Nevada (03)

Outlook: Toss-up


This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.

November 8, 2006 Update:

As the Crystal Ball predicted, Rep. Jon Porter (R) won reelection over Tessa Hafen (D) with 48% of the vote.

November 6, 2006 Update:

Rep. Jon Porter (R) will win reelection over Tessa Hafen (D). Republicans concede that Hafen has run a stronger than expected race in this politically dead-even Clark County district, and most polls show Porter’s lead in the mid-single digits. But Porter has not made any major mistakes, and we give him a slight edge in light of his strong recent electoral performances. It is not impossible we could see the young former Reid staffer Hafen prevail in the case of a bad GOP year in Nevada.

July 13, 2006 Update:

The entry of Sen. Harry Reid aide Tessa Hafen on the Democratic side in this suburban Las Vegas seat means that sophomore GOP Rep. Jon Porter will have to spend some time tending to his reelection campaign in 2006 after all. With Reid’s help, Hafen has already erased over a quarter of Porter’s cash-on-hand advantage, but Porter’s very sizeable win 2004 here against a hyped Democratic competitor underscores just how difficult it will be for Hafen to dislodge him.


Candidates

Jon Porter (I) – Republican – Total Raised: $2,502,928.30 | Total Spent: $2,660,556.68
Website

Tessa Hafen – Democrat – Total Raised: $1,240,683.86 | Total Spent: $1,060,902.02
Website