Sabatos Crystal Ball

New Mexico Races

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New Mexico (01)

Outlook: Toss-up


This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.

November 8, 2006 Update:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R) won reelection over Patricia Madrid (D) with 50% of the vote.

November 6, 2006 Update:

Patricia Madrid (D) will unseat Heather Wilson (R). Several weeks ago, this might not have been such a close call for the Crystal Ball, but even Democrats have acknowledged that Madrid has stumbled in the final stages of the campaign. A powerful Wilson television ad highlights Madrid’s painful-to-watch speechlessness as she attempts to answer a simple question on taxes during a recent debate. Wilson is clearly the stronger and more comfortable campaigner, but she makes her career in a district decreasingly hospitable to her party. We’re sticking with Madrid to ride Gov. Bill Richardson’s coattails to victory, but really, take your pick. Early voting statistics project a photo finish.

September 26, 2006 Update:

Republican U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson is in a dead heat against Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Madrid has hammered Wilson for supporting the Iraq war; Wilson has charged Madrid with ignoring a corruption scandal in the treasurer’s office.

Brenan Richards, Crystal Ball Pacific Regional Correspondent

June 29, 2006 Update:

GOP Rep. Heather Wilson is on pace to raise more money than she has ever has in any one of her previous campaigns, but Democratic nominee Patricia Madrid is keeping pace. In this Kerry-carried district, the moderate Wilson is in for the fight of her political life.

February 8, 2006 Update:

In what is shaping up to be a game of ethical finger-pointing, GOP Rep. Heather Wilson and Democratic nominee Patricia Madrid continue to duke it out in this Albuquerque swing district. It’s still anybody’s guess as to who will prevail on November 7th.


February 2006 Outlook:

Although some Republicans had encouraged a Senate bid by GOP Rep. Heather Wilson early on this cycle, it won’t happen in 2006. Now that Democrats are fielding a candidate who just may be able to match her personal appeal in this heavily Hispanic, Kerry-majority district, Wilson will have her hands full simply trying to hold onto her House seat.

Much to Democrats’ glee, popular state Attorney General Patricia Madrid recently announced her intention to run in this Albuquerque-based seat and has already raised over half of $1 million in her drive to unseat Wilson. Her long-anticipated bid promises to give Wilson her toughest race yet. Still, Wilson is known for a strong independent streak and has been critical of members of her own congressional leadership. Moreover, she has proven over the past decade that she is no stranger to close races. At this point, this race is dead even.

Candidates

Heather Wilson (I) – Republican – Total Raised: $4,092,826.16 | Total Spent: $3,846,265.27
Website

Patrica Madrid – Democrat – Total Raised: $2,907,659.63 | Total Spent:$2,487,630.48
Website