Sabatos Crystal Ball

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New Jersey (07)

Outlook: Leans Republican


This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.

November 6, 2006 Update:

Rep. Mike Ferguson (R) will win reelection over Linda Stender (D). A recent trip to this district convinced the Crystal Ball that Ferguson is taking Stender’s challenge more seriously than he has taken others in the past. Green “Stender is a Spender” signs adorn the district, and slogan may help carry the day for Ferguson in a district narrowly won by Bush in 2004. Stender’s position on the war clearly helps her, and we won’t completely rule out an upset, but we predict she will fall short of knocking off Ferguson in this expensive district.

July 13, 2006 Update:

GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson is probably slightly to the right of this moderate central New Jersey district, which has always made Democrats here quite eager to add him to their target list. And in 2006, if any district in New Jersey is ripe to experience a competitive contest, it’s this one. Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender has raised sufficient funds to be taken seriously, and boasts a strong base in Union County. But in the wake of the Garden State’s latest budget debacle and state shutdown, it’s probably not in Stender’s best interest to place state legislative service front and center on her resume for higher office. Ferguson has hovered around 57% so far this decade, and he could see his margin reduced substantially this year, but Stender starts this race with a very wide gap to close.


Candidates

Linda Stender (I) – Democrat – Total Raised: $1,569,825.15 | Total Spent: $1,290,748.21
Website

Mike Ferguson (I) – Republican – Total Raised: $2,493,104.60 | Total Spent: $2,185,844.03
Website