Pennsylvania (04)
Outlook: Toss-up
This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Watch List” of the next 25 House races worth keeping an eye on.
November 8, 2006 Update:
Jason Altimire (D)
November 6, 2006 Update:
Rep. Melissa Hart (R)
Pennsylvania (06)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.
November 8, 2006 Update:
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)
November 6, 2006 Update:
Lois Murphy (D)
August 23, 2006 Update:
As “Mr. 51 percent,” Rep. Jim Gerlach has always stood out as the most vulnerable (unindicted) Republican from the beginning of the 2006 cycle. As the political environment continues to worsen for the national GOP, especially in suburbs, Gerlach in particular is feeling the heat from a better-funded challenge by Democrat Lois Murphy. The Crystal Ball doubts that Gerlach will be able to hold his tenuous 2004 majority this time around, and despite the incumbent’s best efforts, gives this race the first lean-Democratic takeover rating of the year.
June 29, 2006 Update:
Republican incumbents are feeling the heat in suburban areas of Pennsylvania this year, and the most endangered is Rep. Jim Gerlach. Facing a tough rematch against Democrat Lois Murphy, whom he narrowly bested in 2004, Gerlach has taken to the airwaves in the more conservative portions of his district with an ad talking tough on illegal immigration. Still, Gerlach stands only an even chance of running up big enough margins in those areas to offset Murphy’s advantages in the closer-in Montgomery County precincts of the district.
February 2006 Outlook:
In a seat supposedly tailor-made for him, two-term GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach has not yet been able to truly solidify his grasp at the ballot box. It seems as if each year, any advantages Gerlach has accrued as the result of his incumbency have been offset by this outer-suburban southeastern Pennsylvania district’s demographic movement towards Democrats.
In his first race in 2002, Gerlach bested Democrat Dan Wofford by a narrower than expected 51 to 49 percent margin in an open seat situation. In 2004, as the district opted for John Kerry at the top of the ticket, Gerlach eked out another 51 to 49 percent victory, this time over Democratic attorney Lois Murphy. Murphy has announced her intention to seek a rematch in 2006 and actually out-raised the incumbent Gerlach during the final quarter of 2005, setting up what will surely be one of the cycle’s marquee races. And with Republican lightning rod Sen. Rick Santorum heading next year’s GOP ticket in the Keystone State, a strong turnout on the part of a motivated Democratic base could really cause the more moderate Gerlach headaches. Of all GOP incumbents, Gerlach may be the most endangered, and though he is an experienced campaigner and shows over $1 million in the bank, we currently rate this race a toss-up.
Pennsylvania (07)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.
November 8, 2006 Update:
Joe Sestak (D)
November 6, 2006 Update:
Joe Sestak (D)
June 29, 2006 Update:
GOP Rep. Curt Weldon, who has not faced serious competition in ages, seems to be taking his campaign seriously in 2006. He clearly recognizes the shifting partisan foundations of this Democratic-trending, Delaware County-based district and is raising plenty o
f campaign cash, but he has also shown his rust by criticizing his Democratic rival, decorated veteran Joe Sestak, for treating his daughter’s brain tumor in a hospital outside the district. Weldon has deep roots in this district, but his persistence on the issue of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has struck more than several observers as unusual, and it’s just enough to push this race into the Dirty Thirty for the first time.
February 2006 Outlook:
Even in the face of very weak opposition, ten-term GOP Rep. Curt Weldon failed to break 60 percent of the vote in the 2004 election. Make no mistake; this close-in Philadelphia suburban district is moving quickly towards the Democrats, and voted 53 percent for Kerry the same year. That’s why all of a sudden, the entrenched Weldon has been added to lists of possible vulnerable Republican incumbents. Opposing him this year will be veteran Joe Sestak, who only recently announced his candidacy and has not yet had time to raise money. Still, Sestak has a long way to go if he wants to put Weldon’s congressional future in jeopardy.
Pennsylvania (08)
Outlook: Toss-up
This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.
November 8, 2006 Update:
Patrick Murphy (D)
November 6, 2006 Update:
Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
June 29, 2006 Update:
As expected, Democrats here selected veteran Patrick Murphy as their nominee to do battle against freshman GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, and Murphy is hoping that in 2006 as opposed to 2004, his party can cut through all the clutter and get across to voters their message that Fitzpatrick is too conservative for the district. But Fitzpatrick retains a gigantic cash-on-hand advantage over his challenger, and that matters a great deal in the expensive Philadelphia media market. Continue to give Fitzpatrick an edge here.
February 2006 Outlook:
Freshman Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick won convincingly last year in this pro-Kerry, Bucks County-based district, if only because Democrats were caught off guard when longtime moderate GOP Rep. Jim Greenwood announced his decision not to seek reelection at the very last minute. Republicans had selected the conservative Fitzpatrick, a former Bucks County commissioner, over the wishes of the popular Greenwood, although Greenwood did sign on to Fitzpatrick’s campaign prior to November. Meanwhile, Democrats were stuck with their sacrificial lamb, liberal activist Virginia Schrader, who clearly would not have been her party’s choice if Greenwood had given more notice of his decision to retire.
In 2006, several Democrats are vying to carry their party’s banner in what each hopes will be a banner year for Pennsylvania’s Democrats. Prosecutor Patrick Murphy, former Bucks County commissioner Andy Warren, and Coast Guard Veteran Paul Lang each bring very different sets of credentials to the nomination race, but Murphy appears to be the attracting the most support in the campaign’s early stages. In the general election, the Democratic nominee will certainly seek to hold Fitzpatrick’s feet to the fire over his hesitance on Stem Cell research (one issue on which Fitzpatrick and the socially liberal Greenwood vigorously disagree) in this highly college-educated district, but given the freshman’s strong showing last year, Fitzpatrick holds a substantial early edge.
Pennsylvania (10)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Ferocious FIFTY” list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.
November 6, 2006 Update:
November 6, 2006 Update:
Chris Carney (D)
November 6, 2006 Update:
November 6, 2006 Update:
Chris Carney (D)
Background
There’s only one explanation for GOP Rep. Don Sherwood’s rather anemic 56 percent to 44 percent primary victory over political unknown Kathy Scott, and it’s the fact that Sherwood’s five-year affair with political activist Cynthia Ore was recently brought to light by ugly accusations of choking and a resulting undisclosed settlement. Sherwood’s unexpected and underwhelming limp across the primary finish line served as a wake up call that his personal pecadilloes have taken a toll on his standing with this far-northeastern Pennsylvania district’s electorate.
Make no mistake about it: even though the 10
th is as reliably GOP a district as you can find in northeastern Pennsylvania, Sherwood will need to rally far more than 56 percent of Republican voters to support him in November if he wants to win a fifth term in Congress. Democratic challenger veteran Chris Carney is mounting as serious an effort as any Democrat has here since Democrat Patrick Casey lost here in 2000, and if he raises anything close to Sherwood’s fundraising total for the second quarter, we may consider upgrading this race, though Sherwood’s personal wealth all but guarantees the incumbent a financial advantage down the stretch.
Candidates
Don Sherwood (I) – Republican – Total Raised:$1,568,449.13 I Cash On Hand: $1,735,371.91
Chris Carney – Democrat – Total Raised: $1,159,792.89 I Total Spent:$938,692.00
Website