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Nebraska (01)

Outlook: Likely Republican


This race is part of the Crystal Ball’s “Watch List” of the next 25 House races worth keeping an eye on.

November 8, 2006 Update:

Jeff Fortenberry (R) won reelection over Maxine Moul (D) with 58% of votes.

Update:

First-term GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry is up for reelection against Maxine Moul, Nebraska’s former Lt. Governor. A poll taken early in September showed Fortenberry with a considerable in advantage in the race, placing him ahead of Moul 56 to 32 percent. Fundraising numbers for the 2nd quarter reveal that Moul has had some success in fundraising which could be tied to increased support: Moul more than doubled Fortenberry’s 2nd quarter numbers. Fortenberry, however, still has an advantage in cash-on-hand and just this month held a fundraiser with Vice President Cheney in Omaha.

Fortenberry has also agreed to debate Moul twice in October; Moul had previously criticized Fortenberry for his unwillingness to settle on debates. Each debate will last one hour; one will be held in Lincoln and the other will be held in Norfolk. Although the Crystal Ball is not yet ready to list this race as truly “in play,” we are keeping a close eye on it to see if DCCC commitment will do anything to shift the political dynamics on the windswept prairies of central Nebraska.

Meredith Ramsey, Crystal Ball Midwestern Regional Correspondent


Candidates

Jeff Fortenberry (I) – Republican – Total Raised: $1,111,049.51 | Total Spent: $942,725.31
Website

Maxine Moul – Democrat – Total Raised: $800,026.25 | Total Spent: $622,920.70
Website

Nebraska (03) (Open Seat)

Outlook: Toss-up


November 8, 2006 Update:

November 8, 2006 Update:

As the Crystal Ball predicted, Adrian Smith (R) won election over Scott Kleeb (D) with 55% of votes.

November 6, 2006 Update:

November 6, 2006 Update:

Adrian Smith (R) will defeat Scott Kleeb (D). Wow, we’re talking about a competitive House seat in western Nebraska, one of the four or five most Republican districts in the country? It’s hard to believe, but the telegenic Ivy League-educated rancher Kleeb (pronounced KLEB) has run as good a campaign as any Democrat could possibly run here and the stars are as aligned as they ever will be for him in 2006. His opponent, the very conservative legislator Smith, had been considered a shoo-in after winning the primary here, but to his credit, Kleeb has worked the district extremely hard and has funded a strong broadcast offensive. There is some precedent for a close open seat race her e: in 1990, Republican Bill Barrett captured the district by only 4,000 votes over Democrat Sandra Scofield; we’ll bet on the safe side that we see a similar result sixteen years later, especially after an energetic weekend presidential campaign visit. Interestingly, these two young candidates may have the lowest combined age of any set of congressional opponents in the country.

November 2, 2006 Update:

November 2, 2006 Update:

Nebraska’s 3rd District has been in Republican control for almost half a century but recent polling has indicated the Republican stronghold could be trending Democrat. Republican Adrian Smith started the race with a 33 point lead but a recent left-leaning poll shows him now trailing Democrat Scott Kleeb by 6 points. This race garnered national attention overnight as both sides have received funds from their national operations. President Bush will visit the district in the closing days of the campaign to rally support for Smith, Bush won the district by a 50 point margin in 2004. This red Republican district could be trending blue without the former Cornhusker football coach and current Congressman Tom Osborne at the helm.


Candidates

Scott Kleeb – Democrat – Total Raised:$708,096.83 | Total Spent: $518,611.05

Adrian Smith – Republican – Total Raised: $1,114,716.04 | Total Spent: $964,598.97