Sabatos Crystal Ball

Oklahoma Races

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Oklahoma

Outlook: Solid Democratic


November 8, 2006 Update:

Election Results

As the Crystal Ball predicted, Democrat Brad Henry won re-election over Republican Ernest Istook with 67% of the vote.

June 1, 2006 Update:

Governor Brad Henry is leading Congressman Ernest Istook by a mile, and should be reelected handily.

March 27, 2006 Update:

Every good source we have in Oklahoma, including some very prominent Republicans who have held or do hold public office there, tell us that Gov. Brad Henry, is practically unbeatable by Congressman Ernest Istook. We must admit that we are surprised by these sentiments, since the Sooner State is so fundamentally Republican, but they know Oklahoma politics a lot better than we do. We’ll go with Henry.


Background

Governor Brad Henry, the rare successful Democrat in this deeply Red state, ought to be in good shape for his reelection bid in ’06. Henry has been a mainly conservative, cautious Governor, and appears generally popular. However, a strong Republican nominee has emerged; Congressman Ernest Istook has decided to run, and in Oklahoma any legitimate GOP candidate must be taken very seriously.

Henry was barely elected with just 43 percent in a three-way race in ’02, but he has governed well. Two other impressive Republican candidates, former Congressman J.C. Watts and Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin, both decided not to run, but Istook cannot be ignored.

Candidates

Brad Henry (I) – Democrat – current Governor and former state senator
Website

Ernest Istook – Republican – U.S. Congressman from Oklahoma’s 5th district
Website