Sabatos Crystal Ball

Michigan Races

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Michigan

Outlook: Leans Democratic


November 8, 2006 Update:

Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) won reelection over Dick Devos (R) with 56% of the vote.

Latest Update:

Some recent surveys have suggested that Gov. Jennifer Granholm is benefiting from the Democratic breeze in the country, and perhaps has a slight lead over Republican Dick DeVos. But, no one is counting DeVos out, and this continues to be one of the Democratic Party’s most significant gubernatorial challenges in the nation.

August 2, 2006 Update:

In every year with a strong trend there are a few races moving in the opposite direction. The Michigan gubernatorial contest is one, due to the very poor Michigan economy. Governor Jennifer Granholm was once bright star in the Democratic Party’s constellation, but she is now in a life and death struggle with Republican Dick DeVos. In some polls he leads him narrowly, and in other polls he leads her narrowly, but it is obvious that this will go down to the wire. The factor working in Granholm’s favor is not incumbency–that is working against her–but rather that she has a “D” next to her name in a “D” state, in a “D” year.

June 1, 2006 Update:

Remarkably, Republican Dick DeVos has been leading Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm in some polls. The economy in The Wolverine State has not been good, and this has hurt Granholm–along with DeVos deep pockets. All we can do is monitor this race. We originally believed that Granholm would pull out a second term, and in truth we still do; but we cannot ignore the serious warning signs that keep emanating from Michigan.


Background

First-term Democrat Jennifer Granholm isn’t as popular as she once was, and it is no longer impossible that she could be upset. At the same time, is difficult to see any of the Republicans currently mentioned for the nomination depriving her of a second term. This may change, as the GOP develops a candidacy. Currently, Dick DeVos appears to be the leading Republican candidate.

Incidentally, were she not a native of Canada, she would be mentioned frequently for the 2008 Democratic ticket. Michigan is normally in the Democratic presidential column, but not by landslide margins.

Candidates

Jennifer Granholm (I) – Democrat – current Governor and former state attorney general
Website

Dick DeVos – Republican – former president of Amway, husband of former state GOP chairwoman Betsy DeVos
Website