2004 Governor

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GOVERNOR OUTLOOK FOR 2008: Will the 6-5 Stalemate Be Broken?

Current breakdown: 28 Democrats, 22 Republicans

Perhaps the most perennially overshadowed races in American politics are the eleven gubernatorial elections held every presidential election year. Candidates in these eleven races must cut through the clutter of the battle for the nation's top job in order to get their message across in the battle for their state's top job - a tall order, especially in the handful of "swing" states in this category.

Not that it's anything special, but Democrats and Republicans have split these "on-year" governorships nearly down the middle at 6-5 since 2002, with Democrats controlling the lion's share. Democrats had held a lopsided 8-3 advantage before 2002, when Republican Jim Douglas won the Vermont statehouse left open by Howard Dean and Republican Craig Benson won the New Hampshire statehouse left open by Jeanne Shaheen (Vermont and New Hampshire are the last two states that adhere to two-year executive terms).

In 2004, the parties swapped governorships, as Democrats captured Montana and New Hampshire while the GOP stole back Indiana and Missouri. Interestingly, the Democratic incumbents in the former two states are now among the nation's MOST popular state executives, while the Republican incumbents in the latter two are two of the nation's three LEAST popular governors. On the other hand, both governors term-limited in 2008, Ruth Ann Minner of Delaware and Mike Easley of North Carolina, are Democrats.

A few of these races will be fiercely contested for a fresh reason: the gubernatorial elections of 2008 mark the first round of elections in which governors with veto power over post-2010 Census redistricting will be chosen. That's right, all you political cartographers: your gerrymandering opportunities are just around the corner! Still, the only state up for grabs in 2008 with more than 10 congressional districts is North Carolina, so the really big gubernatorial prizes in the decennial line-drawing game won't be won until 2010.